BLACK FRIDAY AD RESEARCH September 2026

Nobody makes enough ads.

Across  holiday seasons from  brands, the brands that made more Black Friday ads for their size spent more on Black Friday, even at thousands of ads, and each dollar still brought in about the same sales. Most of the year, you optimize for the most bang for each buck. Black Friday may be the one moment to be a maximizer and go for all the bucks.

  •  holiday seasons from  brands
  • to Black Friday ads made per season
  • sales = what Meta counts when someone clicks an ad and buys within  days
  • US dollars
as much money for a new Black Friday ad as for a new October ad (our deep dive, slides 2–3 · each ad’s first  days)
more Black Friday spending when a brand has twice as many Black Friday ads as a brand its size (our best guess from  brands)
as much money spent on the  big days as on  normal October days (same deep dive · Black Friday to Cyber Monday)
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02 · THE TEST

How different is a new Black Friday ad from a new October ad?

A new Black Friday ad gets as much money as a new October ad in its first days. October is a normal month. Black Friday is the biggest shopping time of the year. If brands had enough ads, a new ad would get about the same money in both. So we set up a fair race. Every new ad got the same days, and we counted the money spent on each one.

Black Friday ads and October ads side by side, for all the study brands added together, over both years
What we measured Black Friday October
A fair race · each ad's first days
Hit rate in daysShare of ads that got or more in their first days
October
Money per adAverage money spent on an ad in its first days
October
Other numbers
Ads made brands, both years
Money per ad, whole season, on average October ads had as much time
Money on the big daysBlack Friday to Cyber Monday, all ads, per year normal October days

Why one row looks different. Over the whole season, October ads got more money per ad. But they had more time. An October ad had about days left in the season. A Black Friday ad had about days. That is why the fair race gives every ad the same days.

Money spent per new ad in its first days · brands added up ·
What the words mean: Meta = the company that runs ads on Facebook and Instagram. Made = set up in Meta, even if the ad never ran. Money = money spent on ads, not sales. Cyber Monday = the Monday after Black Friday. Black Friday ads = ads for the Black Friday sale, made from to Cyber Monday. Slide 3 shows how we found them. Meta can't show us ads that were deleted before they ran, so we can't count those. October ads = all other ads made . Hit rate in days = the share of ads that got or more in their first days. Slides 5 and 8 count the whole season instead. Every ad made counts, even ads that got no money. The big days = Black Friday to Cyber Monday (). A normal October day = October's money split evenly over its days. Money in other currencies was changed to US dollars at monthly average rates.
Source: Meta Ads · brands (names hidden) · holiday seasons · ·
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03 · THE BRANDS

Optimizers want the most bang for each buck. Maximizers want all the bucks.

We started with five brands of different sizes. They spent to on Meta in November 2025, from about the middle of the pack to near the top. A new Black Friday ad got more money in its first days than a new October ad. This was true in of their holiday seasons.

Each gray dot is a brand we work with. Some decoy dots are added across them to anonymize the dataset. Its place from left to right shows what it spent on Meta in . The five brands we studied are marked A to E. Each one also gets its own row at the top. In that row, an empty circle is November 2024 and a filled circle is November 2025. The label shows what the brand spent each November, first 2024, then 2025. Under that is how many ads it made from October to December.

Brands we work with, Nov 2025 (), plus some decoys Brand we studied, Nov 2024 Brand we studied, Nov 2025

Some decoy dots are added across the chart to anonymize the dataset. Every count and percentage on this slide uses only the real brands.

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Brands we work with that spent at least on Meta in , grouped by how much they spent, with the five brands we studied shown in their groups. Decoy dots are not counted
Spent on Meta in NovemberBrands we work with% of allStudy brands, Nov 2024Study brands, Nov 2025
The five brands we studied: size group, money spent on Meta in November, ads made from October to December, and Black Friday ads, for each year
BrandSize groupSize groupSpent on Meta in NovemberAds made Oct–DecBlack Friday ads
202420252024202520242025

Why these five. They go from about the middle of the brands we work with to near the very top. The biggest spent more than ten times as much as the smallest. So what you see next is not only about big brands, or only about middle-size ones.

How we found the Black Friday ads
  • Names: A computer searched the name of every campaign, ad set and ad. It looked for words like "Black Friday", "Cyber Monday" and "BFCM". It caught short forms and spelling mistakes too, like "Blk Fri" and "BCFM".
  • Ad words: The computer also searched the words in every ad. That means its main text, headline and description.
  • Words in the picture: A computer read the words in each ad's picture. For a video, it saw only one still picture. So it can miss words that show up only in the video.
  • Sale words: Words like "sale" counted only in ads made from to Cyber Monday. They did not count if the brand uses them all the time. A word the brand used on or more September and October ads did not count.
  • Dates: Some ad sets started in November and had a planned end date. If that date fell between Black Friday and two days after Cyber Monday, their ads counted.
  • New ads only: Sometimes only the campaign or ad set name said "Black Friday". Then the ad counted only if its picture or video was new that season. An everyday ad copied into a Black Friday campaign stayed an everyday ad. So did ads for other sales, like Singles' Day or Veterans Day.
  • How we picked the brands: We picked one brand from each size group. Each group had one to four brands to choose from. We scored all ways to pick the five before we chose. To keep the brands secret, we don't say what any brand sells.
What the words mean: Meta = the company that runs ads on Facebook and Instagram. Campaign and ad set = groups that hold ads in Meta. Cyber Monday = the Monday after Black Friday. BFCM = Black Friday Cyber Monday. A holiday season = to , for one brand in one year. Money = money spent on ads, not sales. Spent on Meta in November = money spent on Meta ads that month. Size group = brands that spend about the same on Meta each month. All money is in US dollars. K = thousand. M = million. ~ = about. Ads made = every ad a brand made from to . Made = set up in Meta, even if the ad never ran or spent money. Black Friday ads = ads made for the Black Friday sale, found with the steps above. They were made from to Cyber Monday. This includes ads that never spent money. Meta can't show us ads that were deleted before they spent money, so we can't count those. Dots = the brands we work with that spent at least on Meta in . Some decoy dots are added across them to anonymize the dataset. They are not in any count, percentage or table. Log scale = each time the money gets ten times bigger, the dot moves the same distance right. Money in other currencies was changed to US dollars at monthly rates.
Source: Meta Ads · brands (names hidden) · holiday seasons 2024 and 2025 · ·
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04 · THE NUMBERS

Black Friday ads brought in more sales for every $1 than the brands’ other ads, both years.

This table adds up all five brands. You can also look at one brand at a time in the chart. The sales here are the ones Meta counts: someone clicked an ad and bought within days.

Most numbers show their math when you hover or tab to them.Most numbers show their math when you tap them.

Sales for every $1 spent · ·

Black Friday ads usually brought in more sales for every $1 than other ads. We counted the whole holiday season.

What we measured

What the words mean: Meta = the company behind Facebook and Instagram. Holiday season = to . Black Friday = the day after Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday = the Monday after Black Friday. Ads made = ads created in Meta from to . This counts ads that never spent any money. Meta can’t show us ads that were deleted before they spent, so those are left out. Black Friday ads = ads made for the Black Friday sale, from to Cyber Monday. Ones made after Cyber Monday count as other ads. We found Black Friday ads in a few ways (see slide 3). We read their names and their words. A computer read the words in their pictures. We also used sale words and the dates they were set to run. We catch misspelled names too, like “BCFM”. Early Black Friday ads = Black Friday ads made more than a week before Thanksgiving.

Sales for every $1 (ROAS) = sales ÷ money spent. Other ads = all other ads that spent money from to , whenever they were made. That includes the ads made in October, which slide 6 shows in their own color. The whole account = all of a brand’s Meta ads. All brands = we add up their money and sales first, then divide. We never average the brands’ rates. The big days = Black Friday to Cyber Monday (). Biggest day = the day with the most money spent, to . We compare it with a normal October day: all October money ÷ the days in October. “×” means “times as much.” K = thousand. M = million. Money in other currencies was changed to US dollars at each month’s average rate.

Source: Meta Ads · brands (names hidden) · · US dollars · sales Meta counts from ad clicks within days

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05 · THE SPEND CEILING

Brands with more Black Friday ads have a higher spending ceiling. Each new ad adds a little less than the one before. But none of them pulls the total down.

A ceiling is the most you can spend before your ads stop working well. We checked holiday seasons from brands. Take two brands the same size. The one with twice as many Black Friday ads spent more on Black Friday. We also followed of them from one year to the next. When a brand doubled its Black Friday ads, it spent more on Black Friday.

Total Black Friday money
Money per ad
Hit rate (based on modeled regression)
For a brand this size, the next ad adds

Our best guess at this size Brands half to twice this size Other brands Your Black Friday ads

Ads made Money per ad Hit ratemodeled regressionmodeled Extra moneyfrom each new adper new ad Total Black Friday money

Your number of ads is the shaded row. Hit rate = the share of ads that became big spenders ( or more by ). Extra money from each new ad = the average extra money for each ad added since the row above. The first row starts from zero ads. The small number is the money that whole step adds. The steps add up to the total (before rounding). The “next ad adds” box up top shows just one more ad, which adds a little less.

How to read it. Money per ad goes down as you add ads. That is normal. But the total keeps going up on every row. So each new ad still adds to the money spent. Stop only when a new ad costs more to make than it brings in. Don't stop just because money per ad looks lower.

Show the holiday seasons behind the dots

What the words mean: Meta = the company that runs ads on Facebook and Instagram. Black Friday = the big sale day after Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday = the Monday after Black Friday. Money = money spent on ads, not sales. Black Friday ads = ads made for the Black Friday sale, from to Cyber Monday. Slide 3 shows how we found them. Made = set up in Meta, even if the ad never ran. Meta can't show us ads that were deleted before they ran, so we can't count those. Black Friday money = money spent on Black Friday ads from to . Brand size = the money a brand spent on Meta in October. Typical brand = the middle size in our data. Half the holiday seasons had smaller brands, and half had bigger ones. Big spender = an ad that got or more from to . Hit rate = big spenders ÷ ads made. A holiday season = to for one brand in one year. We assume sales for every $1 (ROAS) stay the same as ads grow. In the real numbers, against each brand's other ads, they moved about each time ads doubled. That is close to no change. The brand on slide 7 is not in this math. Money in other currencies was changed to US dollars at monthly rates.

For math fans: ln(Black Friday spend) = a + b·ln(ads) + g·ln(size) + season · b = (95% CI –) · R² · n = · within-brand b =

Source: Meta Ads · brands (names hidden) · holiday seasons in · ·

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06 · HOW LONG ADS LAST

Black Friday ads burn bright on the big days, then fade. Ads made in October keep going into December, on average.

Each bar is one day. Its height is what the brands spent on Meta that day, on average. The colors show which ads got that money. The big days run from Black Friday to Cyber Monday. In , Black Friday ads (early ones too) got about of the money on those days. Ads made in October still got from . These numbers add up all brands' dollars, so bigger brands count more. You can switch the year.

Where each day's Meta money went

Everyday ads Made in October Early Black Friday ads Black Friday ads Normal October day All Black Friday ads made each day (a bigger dot means more ads)

Use the left and right arrow keys to read each day. Page Up and Page Down move a week. Every number is also in the table below the chart.

Show as table

What lasts. From , Black Friday ads got only about of the money. Early ones count too. Ads made in October got . Ads you make in October, before the rush, keep getting money after it.

What the words mean: Meta runs Facebook and Instagram. Black Friday is the big sale day after Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday is the Monday after it. Each bar is the money spent on Meta in one day, averaged over the brands. The colors show how that money was split. Each ad gets just one color. A Black Friday ad made in October gets the early Black Friday color. “Made in October” means the other ads made in October. “Everyday ads” means all the rest. So on this chart, everyday ads leave out the ads made in October. On slide 4, “other ads” include them. “Made” means created in Meta, even if the ad never ran. The dots under the chart show all the Black Friday ads made each day. When the chart is too narrow, each dot is a week. A bigger dot means more ads. Both years use the same dot sizes. “Black Friday ads” means ads our rules marked as Black Friday ads (slide 3 shows how). We count the ones made from to Cyber Monday. Ads that never spent money count too. Deleted ads that never spent can't be counted, because Meta no longer lists them. Black Friday ads made after Cyber Monday (for a sale that runs longer) count as everyday ads.

“Average” means we add up all brands' money each day. Then we divide it by . A brand with no spending recorded that day counts as zero. So big brands count more than small ones. The dots add up the Black Friday ads made by all brands. When we give one number for Black Friday ads, it includes the early ones. Another way is to count each brand the same: average each brand's share of each day's money. Then, in , Black Friday ads got of each day's money on the big days. They first dipped under on . From , ads made in October got . Black Friday ads got . “A normal October day” is the average of the October bars. “Best day” is the day with the tallest bar. “Early Black Friday ads” means Black Friday ads made before the sale window. The window runs from the Thursday a week before Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. Black Friday ads made in September that still spent money in count as early ones too. They have no dot. “All Black Friday ads” means both Black Friday colors added together. “The big days” means Black Friday to Cyber Monday (). Money in other currencies was changed to at each month's average rate.

Source: Meta Ads · brands (names hidden) · · ·

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07 · ONE BRAND'S STORY
One brand · not like most

One brand ran Black Friday ads in years. Each year, its best day was a normal October day.

This is a brand we work with. It is not one of the above. Every Black Friday, it makes far more ads than most brands. In , it spent on a normal October day. On its best day, , it spent .

What this brand spent on Meta each day, Oct–Dec

Each bar shows the money spent in one day. The top part is Black Friday ads. The bottom part is its other ads. Point at or tap a day to see its numbers.

Year
Other ads Black Friday ads Normal October day (Black Friday to Cyber Monday)

Go to the chart with the Tab key. Then use the left and right arrow keys to read each day.

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The rest of the year: the best bang for your buck. Black Friday: all the bucks. Each year, its best day came days before Black Friday.
What the words mean: Meta = the company that runs ads on Facebook and Instagram. Black Friday ads = ads made for the Black Friday sale. We found them by reading this brand's ad names and the words in its ads. Ran = went live and spent money. A normal October day = the money spent on Meta in October, split evenly over its days. Best day = the day it spent the most, Oct–Dec. Both are money spent in one day. We compare each year's best day with that same year's October. Sales for every $1 (ROAS) = the sales Meta counts ÷ the money spent, Oct–Dec. We compare Black Friday ads with all the brand's other ads. Cyber Monday = the Monday after Black Friday. = Black Friday to Cyber Monday (). Money in other currencies was changed to US dollars at monthly average rates.
Source: Meta Ads · one brand (name hidden, not one of the ) · · ·
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Expected Black Friday money
Sales
The next ad adds
Money per ad
Hit rate (based on modeled regression)

Ads made Expected Black Friday money Extra moneyper new ad Money per ad Sales Inc rev in 60 days

Shaded: twice its ads, as in the headline. Extra money per new ad = the extra money for each ad added since the row above (the first row starts from zero ads). The small number is what that whole step adds.

Total Black Friday money, by number of ads

Our estimate Your pick

Show as table

Don't just chase the best deal

Money per ad is highest when you make only a few ads. Many teams think that means they are doing great. It really means they hit a ceiling. Each new ad adds a bit less than the one before, but it still adds. If the next ad brings in more sales than it costs to make, make it. Maximizers take all the bucks.

What the words mean: Black Friday ads = ads made for the Black Friday sale, from to Cyber Monday. Slide 3 shows how we found them. Made = set up in Meta, even if the ad never ran. Meta can't show us ads that were deleted before they ran, so we can't count those. Black Friday money = money spent on Black Friday ads from to . Brand size = the money a brand spent on Meta in October. Big spender = an ad that got or more from to . Hit rate = big spenders ÷ ads made. Here it is based on modeled regression, the same math as slide 5. These numbers are estimates built on assumptions, not a promise. Don't hold us to them. They leave out what the ads cost to make.

Source: Meta Ads · · · money in other currencies changed to at monthly rates ·

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09 · YOU VS BRANDS SPENDING LIKE YOU

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10 · OUR TAKE

“A lot of ads” is relative. Winners are rare, and you can’t pick them in advance. Maximizers win this moment.

You can’t brief your way to a higher hit rate on the busiest week of the year. What you can do is launch more ads, earlier, so Meta has more candidates to find the winners in. Every extra winner is another ad that can take budget when demand spikes.

Black Friday ads made in one holiday season, across seasons from brands
of all those Black Friday ads became big spenders ( or more by ).

Content mix checklists

The things you should definitely make.

Holiday

  • DABA frames
  • Static ads — new holiday collection & gifting angles
    • Brand-made, polished imagery
    • Lo-fi / UGC-style imagery using brand-shot creative
  • Video ads — polished and lo-fi, new-collection and gifting angles
  • UGC and influencer partners
  • New customer offer — holiday edition

Early bird / BFCM

  • DABA frames
  • Static ads, polished and lo-fi
    • Text-based ads
    • Product ads
  • Video ads leveraging brand creative
  • UGC and influencer partners
    • Greenscreen-style videos, favorite products on sale
    • Grapevine content — sale/promo angles
  • New customer offer — BFCM theme

In the works We’re working on a template of up to 500 Black Friday ad ideas, drawn from patterns in the best Black Friday ads we’ve seen. We’ll try to have it ready for you.